Operating delivery
EBITDA rose 31% and guidance was reaffirmed. The latest filing supports the operating leg of the price condition, not the whole valuation.
Public sample · VST · Q2 2026 · self-directed investor research · not investment advice
VST
Market-pricing brief
Vistra Corp. · NYSE: VST · Information date: 25 August 2026
Closing price, 25 August 2026$139.03
Bring your view. Test it with disclosed evidence.
At $139.03, does the latest disclosure still support today’s price—and are the operating and cash conditions behind that price strengthening or weakening?
Strengthens the price condition: adjusted EBITDA rose 31% year on yearCould weaken it: GAAP earnings fell and hedge losses remain relevant
Primary disclosures behind this sample
Vistra Q2 2026 earnings release ↗Vistra Q2 2026 Form 10-Q ↗Every figure, condition and boundary below traces back to the earnings release or Form 10-Q. The aim is not to predict a trade; it is to test whether new evidence strengthens or weakens the conditions behind today’s price.
The product method
Five questions for the stock you already follow
Does the latest filing still support today’s price—and are the conditions behind its trend strengthening or weakening?
- 01Which disclosed changes matter to today’s price?Keep only facts that can alter the existing valuation logic.
- 02What must be true for today’s price to remain supported?State the operating, cash and per-share conditions that must hold.
- 03Does the new evidence strengthen or weaken those conditions?Keep supporting and contrary evidence visible together.
- 04How do capital and insider actions affect the per-share view?Separate value, dilution, funding-cost and disclosure boundaries.
- 05What must the next filing prove before the view changes?Define facts that would strengthen, weaken or overturn the condition.
60-second readout
60-second current-price readout
Cash and earnings quality
Six-month operating cash flow was $2.222bn versus $1.171bn; capex including nuclear fuel and LTSA prepayments was $1.572bn versus $1.458bn. Positive evidence, but not yet a reconciliation to the company’s FCFbG guide or durable cash per share.
Equity-value protection
Debt and redeemable preferred claims sit ahead of common shareholders, so stronger EBITDA must clear those claims before it becomes common value per share.
01 · Disclosure facts
Three disclosed facts that can alter an existing valuation view
Adjusted EBITDA improved
$1.767bn in Q2 2026, versus $1.349bn a year earlier.Strengthens operating momentum, but a quarterly result alone does not prove full-year cash conversion.
GAAP net income moved the other way
$305m, versus $327m a year earlier; the company disclosed a $472m unrealized hedge loss.Weakens any simple interpretation that EBITDA growth alone proves earnings quality.
2026 guidance was reaffirmed
Adjusted EBITDA: $6.8–7.6bn. Adjusted FCFbG: $3.925–4.725bn.The current-price test is whether guidance becomes cash, not merely whether it is repeated.
Numeric comparison
Three disclosure facts: the numbers side by side
Scroll horizontally to see the full comparison
| Disclosure fact | Latest disclosed number | Comparison | Effect on the price condition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Adjusted EBITDA | $1.767bn | $1.349bn a year earlier · +31% | Partly strengthens operating delivery |
| GAAP net income | $305m | $327m a year earlier · −7% | Challenges a simple earnings-quality read |
| 2026 adjusted FCFbG guide | $3.925–4.725bn | Prior range reaffirmed | Still needs cash conversion proof |
02 · Price condition
The current-price condition being tested
The $139.03 price requires cash delivery and a valuation multiple that can withstand debt and preferred claims ahead of common shareholders.
Using the company’s $7.2bn 2026 EBITDA guidance midpoint, the reference price equates to approximately 9.6x EV / EBITDA after including the stated debt, cash and redeemable preferred-stock claim. This is a condition bridge, not a target price, forecast or trading instruction.
The next question is whether earnings convert into cash per share—not whether the multiple can simply be repeated.$139.03 × 339.23m diluted shares ≈ $47.18bn common equity value; plus $19.595bn long-term debt and $2.476bn preferred claim; less $0.435bn cash = ≈$68.82bn enterprise-value reference.
Price and internal scenarios
Current price vs internal condition bridge
Using the same $7.2bn EBITDA midpoint and stated claims, the home-page $106 / $127 / $148 sensitivities are 8x / 9x / 10x EV / EBITDA. Today’s $139.03 reference is ≈9.6x—between the base and upside sensitivities. These are internal calculation outputs, not price targets.
≈9.6x EV / EBITDA on the $7.2bn midpoint
Lower valuation tolerance or weaker proof of cash delivery
Guidance broadly holds, without a premium rerating
Cash delivery and operating evidence support a higher multiple
03 · Support and counter-evidence
Evidence that strengthens or weakens the current-price condition
Evidence that partly strengthens it
- Q2 ongoing-operations adjusted EBITDA increased 31% year on year.
- Management reaffirmed both EBITDA and adjusted FCFbG guidance for 2026.
- The company continued share repurchases during the quarter.
Evidence that could weaken it
- GAAP net income declined year on year and included a large unrealized hedge loss.
- Debt and senior preferred claims remain material when enterprise value becomes common value per share.
- A single Form 4 sale is a disclosure fact, not a directional signal.
How an existing thesis changes
If your starting thesis was…
This is how the latest filing changes—not replaces—an existing investor view.
“I own VST because operating EBITDA and cash delivery remain strong.”
The 31% adjusted-EBITDA increase and reaffirmed guide support the operating premise. The thesis remains incomplete until FCFbG and the hedge/working-capital bridge are verified.
“The current price is supported because earnings flow cleanly to common shareholders.”
Debt and preferred claims remain ahead of common value, while GAAP income declined. The filing is not enough to confirm the per-share cash premise.
“Repurchases prove the stock is cheap.”
Repurchases affect share count, but a buyback is not evidence that the current price is justified. The operating and cash conditions still have to hold.
04 · Per-share context
Capital and per-share context
05 · Next verification
What the next filing must prove
Is the 2026 EBITDA and adjusted FCFbG range intact, narrowed or revised?
Do hedge effects, working capital and investment needs alter the conversion from EBITDA to cash?
Do financing, preferred claims, repurchases or share count change the current-price bridge?
This is a research framework. It does not provide a buy, sell, hold, target price or return forecast.
Bring the company you already follow. See whether the latest filing still supports today’s price, what is strengthening or weakening the trend conditions, and what must be proven next.
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