Public sample · VST · Q2 2026 · research only, not investment advice
VST
Market-pricing brief
Vistra Corp. · NYSE: VST
Information date: 25 August 2026
Market-price input$139.0325 August 2026 close
Bring your view. Start with the evidence.
At $139.03, the market sits above the base scenario after the bridge accounts for long-term debt, cash and the stated liquidation preference of redeemable preferred stock.
Supports the view: adjusted EBITDA rose 31% year on yearChallenges the view: GAAP earnings fell and hedge losses remain relevant
01 · What changed this period
Three facts that can alter the valuation conversation.
Each item separates what was disclosed from why an investor may need to revisit an assumption.
| What happened | Numeric change | Why it can matter |
|---|---|---|
| Ongoing Operations Adjusted EBITDA improved. | $1.767bn in Q2 2026, versus $1.349bn a year earlier. | Supports operating momentum, but a quarterly result alone does not prove full-year cash conversion. |
| GAAP net income moved the other way. | $305m, versus $327m a year earlier; the company disclosed a $472m unrealized hedge loss. | Challenges any simple “EBITDA up means earnings quality is solved” interpretation. |
| 2026 guidance was reaffirmed. | Adjusted EBITDA: $6.8–7.6bn. Adjusted FCFbG: $3.925–4.725bn. | The market-price question is whether guidance becomes cash, not merely whether it is repeated. |
02 · Support and challenge your view
Evidence should run in both directions.
Evidence supporting a constructive view
- Q2 ongoing-operations adjusted EBITDA increased 31% year on year.
- Management reaffirmed both EBITDA and adjusted FCFbG guidance for 2026.
- The company continued share repurchases during the quarter.
Evidence challenging an uncomplicated view
- GAAP net income declined year on year and included a large unrealized hedge loss.
- Debt and senior preferred claims remain material when an enterprise-value scenario becomes common value per share.
- A single Form 4 sale is a disclosure fact, not a bullish or bearish signal.
03 · Internal valuation: scenario reference
What is the current price already assuming?
This is not a target price. It makes the bridge, inputs and sensitivity visible so the reader can decide whether the calculation basis is credible.
Market-price input$139.03Diluted weighted-average common shares339.23mLong-term debt$19.595bnRedeemable preferred stock at liquidation preference$2.476bnCash and equivalents$0.435bnNet debt + preferred claim used$21.636bnApprox. enterprise value$68.81bn
Method
EV / EBITDA common-share sensitivity
Enterprise value is approximated using dated common equity value plus long-term debt and redeemable preferred stock at its stated liquidation preference, less cash. The scenarios hold those stated claims and diluted weighted-average common shares constant, then change only EBITDA and the multiple.
Using the $7.2bn 2026 guidance midpoint, the dated market input equates to approximately 9.6x EV / EBITDA.
How to read it$106, $127 and $148 are calculation outputs for 8x, 9x and 10x EBITDA sensitivities after the stated preferred-stock claim is deducted before common value per share. They are not targets, forecasts or a promise that the market will trade at any scenario.
| Scenario | 2026 EBITDA input | EV / EBITDA | Approx. common value / share | What must be true |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Downside reference | $7.2bn midpoint | 8.0x | $106 | Lower valuation tolerance or weaker proof of cash delivery. |
| Base reference | $7.2bn midpoint | 9.0x | $127 | Guidance delivery broadly holds, without a premium rerating. |
| Upside reference | $7.2bn midpoint | 10.0x | $148 | Cash delivery and operating evidence justify a higher multiple. |
Rounded calculation outputs only. This bridge includes long-term debt, cash and redeemable preferred stock at its stated $1,000-per-share liquidation preference. It does not classify accounts-receivable financing, the forward-repurchase obligation, dividends, future repurchases, financing changes, taxes, hedge revaluation or changes in share count into the stated bridge; those items require separate analysis rather than an implied treatment. If inputs are not reliable for a company, the delivered brief says that rather than manufacturing an estimate.
04 · Capital and insider context
Signals that affect per-share value—without false certainty.
2.16m shares at $153.34 average
Repurchases can change the per-share math. They do not, on their own, establish that a share is cheap.
$1.29bn as of 30 June 2026
Remaining authorization is capacity, not a commitment to spend or a valuation conclusion.
$21.636bn net debt plus preferred claim used
Debt and redeemable preferred stock are stated separately before an enterprise-value scenario becomes a common-share result.
4,600 shares sold at $160
A June Form 4 is recorded with date and terms. No motive or trade direction is inferred from it.
05 · The next facts that could change the view
Know what to verify before the next conclusion.
Guide delivery
Is the 2026 EBITDA and adjusted FCFbG range still intact, narrowed or revised?
Hedges and cash
Do hedge effects, working capital and investment needs alter the conversion from EBITDA to cash?
Availability and execution
Do planned projects, outages or operational updates support the assumptions behind the multiple?
Traceable inputs
Sources, dates, calculations and unknowns stay separate.
Vistra Q2 2026 earnings release: quarterly results, 2026 guidance, adjusted EBITDA and adjusted FCFbG definitions.
Open source ↗Cash, long-term debt, redeemable preferred stock, diluted weighted-average shares and capital-allocation disclosures for the quarter ended 30 June 2026.
Open source ↗Form 4 disclosed an officer sale of 4,600 shares at $160 on 2 June 2026. The filing does not establish motive or future direction.
Open source ↗Closing price of $139.03 on 25 August 2026, used only as the dated market-price input for this public sample.
Open source ↗Bring your view. Receive the evidence that supports it, challenges it, and shows what would change it.