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Research theme · Humana · 2027 MA Star Ratings · information date: 13 October 2026

Humana 2027 MA Stars: can a quality recovery become durable per-share earnings?

For investors whose current HUM valuation assumes a durable earnings recovery, the final 2027 Medicare Advantage Star Ratings result partly strengthens that price condition. It does not yet establish that the 2028 benefit is recurring per-share earnings. This is a research framework, not a target price or trading recommendation.

Primary disclosureHumana October 9, 2026 Form 8-K on final 2027 MA Star Ratings ↗
Two disclosed facts used hereTop Quartile Stars-revenue result · FY2026 adjusted EPS guidance of at least $9.00

The price condition being tested

For a valuation that assumes a durable Humana earnings recovery to remain defensible, stronger Star Ratings must translate into recurring 2028 economics while membership, benefit design, pricing and medical-cost discipline preserve the gain on a per-share basis.

The evidence strengthens the quality link in the valuation bridge, but leaves the membership, pricing, medical-cost and cash-per-share links unproven. A Star result can affect quality bonus payments and rebates, but it is not a stand-alone earnings stream.

Evidence that partly supports the condition

The final data cleared the company’s stated quality benchmark.

Stars revenue PMPM exceeded the peer-group median by 10%

Humana said its final 2027 MA Star Ratings exceeded its Top Quartile goal. It defines that goal as Stars revenue per member per month 10% above the peer-group median and plans its product and benefit structure around results that approximate that level.

Evidence that can still overturn it

Management itself identifies a one-time component and unresolved variables.

Some BY2028 outperformance is expected to be one-time

Humana said actual 2028 Stars revenue PMPM will depend on membership and contract mix, risk scores, benchmarks and rebates. It expects some outperformance relative to Top Quartile to be one-time and intends to use that benefit for one-time investments and shareholder returns. That boundary matters when separating a quality recovery from a durable earnings run-rate.

The next disclosure checks

What must be verified before maintaining or changing a valuation view?

  1. At the December 10 investor update, does Humana quantify the expected 2028 Stars benefit and distinguish recurring economics from the one-time component?
  2. During 2027 open enrollment and subsequent guidance, do membership, product design and benefit choices preserve the expected quality economics rather than dilute them?
  3. When detailed 2028 guidance is issued, do adjusted EPS, medical-cost trends, capital allocation and share count show that the quality improvement is increasing durable per-share earnings?
Open the primary disclosure ↗

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